But what if they were to withdraw that support? Europe would not be able to support Ukraine to the degree that it has. The fact is, as we’ve discussed many times, European countries remain reliant on American support. I don’t think he’s wrong about highlighting the vulnerabilities of European defence. He’ll also highlight the erosion of European stability as a consequence of Russia’s actions, including the violation of nuclear arms control treaties, and the stationing of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, which I will come to. We understand that he’ll advocate for increased European defence autonomy, urging greater ornament production capacity and defence partnerships within the European Union. Later, Assistant Comment Editor Francis Dearnley offers some significant diplomatic updates from the Continent:įrench President Emmanuel Macron aims to reassure Central and Eastern European countries today about the lasting impact and support that France will offer Europe and Ukraine in its defence strategy. But I think the bigger picture is there’s almost no considered offensive action. I don’t know if they’re necessarily trying to neutralise Ukraine’s air defense, or just wear down the stocks of missiles. And they say that on the ground it has had to redeploy security forces to react to partisan attacks inside Western Russia. UK defence intelligence is saying that Russia has had little success in its likely aims of neutralising Ukraine’s much improved air defences, in a bid to destroy the forces that are assigned for the forthcoming counter-attack. They are building some very deep defensive lines. It’s just not knitted together what they do seem to be doing is transitioning onto the defensive. Russia still seems wedded to its maximalist war objectives. Russia is ‘reacting to Ukrainian action’ rather than actively progressing towards their own war aims. The MOD note that since the start of May this year Russia has increasingly ceded the initiative in the conflict. Dominic Nicholls, Associate Editor of Defence, wades into the debate over the recent drone strikes and what the British British Ministry of Defence believes has been happening:
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